Well, it’s finally here – the Superbowl of Cinema, the Indianapolis 500 of Film – it’s OSCAR Day! As you can probably tell, I’m very excited! So, before I put the finishing touches on the hors d’oeuvres and my party shoes on my feet, I have time for a quick predictions post.
Here is your list of nominees in the twenty-four categories that will be televised tonight. (If you’re a novice watcher, you might want to take a nap now. We can expect the show to last until midnight.) The show should be a good one. Jimmy Kimmel is hosting for the first time. For years, his post-Oscars edition of his own show has been a highlight.
My prognostications for what I think will win are in yellow. If the film or performance that I think should win is different from what I believe will win, I’ve marked it in red. I’ll update with an * for the actual winner. My average over the last few years is roughly 75%. There appear to be quite a few “sure things” this year, so we’ll see whether or not I improve my numbers.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight *
Hedging a bit, right off -the-bat? Let me explain. Hell or High Water was my favorite film of the year, followed by Manchester… and Moonlight. Don’t get me wrong. I thoroughly enjoyed La La Land, but in terms of “Best Picture”? I believe there are other films more deserving. On the other hand, can’t we all use a little bit of simple, lovely, well-made movie magic? So, I won’t really be all that upset when La La Land wins.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck *
Andrew Garfield
Ryan Gosling
Viggo Mortensen
Denzel Washington
I’m sticking with Casey Affleck, though Denzel Washington is surging in most polls.
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert
Ruth Negga
Natalie Portman
Emma Stone *
Meryl Streep
I’m happy that Ruth Negga was recognized for the beautiful Loving, just as I’m mystified that her costar Joel Edgerton, as well as director Jeff Nichols and the film itself, were not.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali *
Jeff Bridges
Lucas Hedges
Dev Patel
Michael Shannon
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis *
Naomie Harris
Nicole Kidman
Octavia Spencer
Michelle Williams
What more can be said about Viola Davis’ fierce performance in Fences? She should have been in the leading actress category and she’d still win.
Best Director
Arrival, Denis Villaneuve
Hacksaw Ridge, Mel Gibson
La La Land, Damien Chazelle *
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
Moonlight, Barry Jenkins
Adapted Screenplay
Arrival, Eric Heisserer
Fences, August Wilson
Hidden Figures, Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi
Lion, Luke Davies
Moonlight, Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney *
Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
La La Land, Damien Chazelle
The Lobster, Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan *
20th Century Women, Mike Mills
I’ll be very happy for Kenneth Longergan, who wrote a gorgeous movie. Would I be even happier if Taylor Sheridan’s name were to be called? Yes. Yes, I would.
Cinematography
Arrival, Bradford Young
La La Land, Linus Sandgren *
Lion, Greig Fraser
Moonlight, James Laxton
Silence, Rodrigo Prieto
Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia *
Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran) *
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Documentary Feature
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America *
Lion, Greig Fraser
Moonlight, James Laxton
Silence, Rodrigo Prieto
Film Editing
Arrival, Joe Walker
Hacksaw Ridge, John Gilbert *
Hell or High Water, Jake Roberts
La La Land, Tom Cross
Moonlight, Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon
Production Design
Arrival, Patrice Vermette and Paul Hotte
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock
Hail, Caesar! , Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh
La La Land, Davis Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco *
Passengers, Guy Hendrix Dyas and Gene Serdena
Costume Design
Allied, Joanna Johnston
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Colleen Atwood *
Florence Foster Jenkins, Consolata Boyle
Jackie, Madeline Fontaine
La La Land, Mary Zophres
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove, Eva von Bahr and Love Larson
Star Trek Beyond, Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo
Suicide Squad, Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson *
Original Score
Jackie, Mica Levi
La La Land, Justin Hurwitz *
Lion, Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
Moonlight, Nicholas Britell
Passengers, Thomas Newman
Original Song
“Audition (The Fools who Dream),” La La Land, music by Justin Hurwitz, lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls, music and lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin, and Karl Johan Schuster
“City of Stars,” La La Land, music by Justin Hurwitz, lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul *
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story, music and lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana, music and lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Sound Editing
Arrival, Sylvain Bellemare *
Deepwater Horizon, Wylie Stateman and Renée Tondelli
Hacksaw Ridge, Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright
La La Land, Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
Sully, Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
Sound Mixing
Arrival, Bernard Gariépy Strobl and Claude La Haye
Hacksaw Ridge, Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace *
La La Land, Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio, and Stuart Wilson
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, and Mac Ruth
Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon, Craig Hammack, Jason Snell, Justin Billington, and Burt Dalton
Doctor Strange, Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, and Paul Corbould
The Jungle Book, Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon *
Kubo and the Two Strings, Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean, and Brad Schiff
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould
Animated Short Film
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper *
Live Action Short Film
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing *
Timecode
Documentary Short Subject
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets *